The Hagel-Martinez Amnesty

The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) has taken a comprehensive look at the "guest worker" and "path to citizenship" plans under the US Senate's Hagel-Martinez bill, which enjoys the full and vocal support of President Bush. The impact of Hagel-Martinez, according to CIS, would be devastating for the US. Nor can there be any doubt that the intent behind Hagel-Martinez (and President Bush's desire) is the granting of amnesty to millions of Latino illegal immigrants who willfully violated American law and sovereignty.

Based on the outcomes of the last amnesty in 1986, we expect that nearly 10 million illegal aliens will receive amnesty under the Hagel-Martinez bill. That is, they will legalize and eventually apply for permanent residence and be eligible for citizenship. As in 1986, we also expect that one-fourth (2.6 million) will get amnesty fraudulently. The bill will also allow an estimated 4.5 million family members of illegal aliens to join their legalized relatives, for a total of 14.4 million beneficiaries. These estimates do not include the very large increases in future legal immigration in the bill.

Based on the 1986 amnesty, we estimate that slightly over 70 percent (7.4 million) of the 10.2 million illegals eligible for the three amnesties in Hagel-Martinez will come forward and receive amnesty legitimately. That is, they will gain legal status allowing them to live and work in the United States and eventually apply for permanent residence and then citizenship.

In addition to the 7.4 million expected to receive amnesty legitimately, we estimate that, as in 1986, there will be one fraudulent amnesty awarded for every three legitimate ones. This means that nearly 2.6 million additional illegals will legalize fraudulently, for a total of 9.9 million.

In addition to the amnesty beneficiaries, the bill will allow an estimated 4.5 million family members currently living aboard to join their newly legalized relatives for a total of 14.4 million people who will benefit from the bill’s amnesty provisions.

Our assumption that the share of illegals who come forward will be similar to the share in 1986 may be too low because, unlike the last legalization, illegals now know that amnesties are real and not a ruse by the government to deport them. Moreover, because the border is now more difficult to cross illegally, legalization is a more attractive option.

Our estimate of 2.6 million fraudulent amnesty recipients, based on the 1986 amnesty, may be too low as well because the false-document industry is now more developed. Moreover, the overworked immigration bureaucracy already has a severe fraud problem according the Government Accountability Office. As its workload mushrooms with amnesty, fraud will become even more difficult to detect.

Of the 14.4 million illegals and their family members who will receive amnesty, we estimate that 13.5 million will eventually become permanent residents, which means they can stay as along as they wish and apply for citizenship. The rest can be expected to die or return home before becoming permanent residents.

The above estimates do not include the bill’s very large increases in future legal immigration, which is expected to double or triple from one million a year under current law.

CIS makes clear - as the Heritage Foundation did last month - that the Hagel-Martinez bill would put into motion the most dramatic demographic alteration of the US since Ted Kennedy's 1965 immigration reform, which opened US borders to immigrants from every portion of the Third World, while slowly choking off European immigration. Hagel-Martinez's aim is both dramatic and deliberate - to radically increase the Latino population in the US at the expense of all other ethnic groups. The impact will be increased ethnic competition (especially between already mariginalized groups, especially blacks), ethnic and cultural balkanization and an increase in crime and racial strife. Worse, it will further undermine any possibility of assimilating Latino immigrants already living in the US by so increasing the numbers of those immigrants that the need for assimilation will decline. Why should Latino immigrants bother to learn English if they can live in large communities of their co-ethnics, served by Spanish-media and Spanish speaking government agencies? The more Spanish speakers there are, the less pressure will exist for Spanish-speakers to learn English.

The Hagel-Martinez bill is the most far-reaching immigration bill ever conceived by Congress. In addition to the amnesty provisions of the bill, it dramatically increases green cards in the future and changes immigration law in numerous other ways. This Backgrounder focuses only on the size and scope of the three amnesty categories in the legislation. We estimate that if the bill becames law, almost 10 million illegal aliens will legalize, 2.6 million of whom will do so fraudulently. In addition, nearly 4.5 million family members of illegal immigrants currently living abroad will be allowed to join their newly legalized relatives for a total of 14.4 million people who will benefit from the bill’s amnesty provisions. We also estimate that, of the 14.4 million who gain legal status, some 13.5 million will eventually be awarded Lawful Permanent Residence (LPR), which means they can stay in the country as along as they wish and apply for citizenship.

Hagel-Martinez represents a disaster for the US and must be stopped. Contact your Congress person and demand that the US House quash any bill that grants amnesty. Demand border enforcement and the defense of US law and sovereignty.